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Dave Manning

Dave Manning

Principal Designated Broker/Owner

Current Real Estate Trends

Spring 2019

The Bainbridge City Council voted unanimously to extend the Building Moratorium for another 6 months, commencing April 3, 2019. Councilwoman Rashman Nassar asserted somewhat giddily, that “median prices on Bainbridge continue to go up”. Councilman Ron Peltier remorsefully noted that many people could not afford to buy the house that they currently lived in due to the escalation of prices and that the supply of available houses for sale has nothing to do with the price of houses. Not sure where he got his Economics degree. Even the Mayor disagreed with that proclamation. Thank goodness the City Council has a handle on the housing market on the Island.

Not that we are Seattle, but historically our real estate market trends with them. Case Shiller reported yesterday, picked up by the Seattle Times, https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-price-cooldown-stands-out-amid-u-s-cities/ Seattle is down 5.9% over the past 7 months. Year over year Seattle is up 3.65%. Keep in mind, Case Shiller has a 60 day lag. Of the 11 houses sold thus far in March, 36% are new construction. All of those homes were begun prior to the enactment of the moratorium. Median price for last year Residential Sales was $905,000. For the first two months of 2019, median price was $773,750. Are prices really down 14.5%? Most sellers don’t think so. NWMLS numbers will publish mid next week. Our sample size is still very small. We definitely had a “snow event” in February. Thus far, sales volumes are down across the board. I guess we’ll have to ask the City Council. Manning’s Musings will be updated next week with March numbers.

Trending Home Prices

Lots of news on the home front. Yesterday, Case Shiller came out with yet another decrease in their pricing index… that’s three months in a row. Remember, Case Shiller has a 60 day lag. Annualized the last three months reported has us (Seattle) down 13.4%.  Year over year we are still up 8.4%.

https://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-seattle-home-price-nsa-index

Regardless of how you manipulate the numbers, we are trending down. Is it seasonal? Not really. July, August and September index numbers are hardly end of year numbers. Bainbridge median prices have been somewhat stable, but our sample size is too small to make a case for us being different.

The Seattle Times reported on the numbers and they did not sugar coat their comments, see below. In 90 days, we have gone from the fastest price appreciation market in the country (year over year) to the fastest price depreciation market (90 days). Again, it’s all in the numbers.

Here comes the $64,000 question… when a client asks you, should I wait until Spring to list my home? We know that historically more homes are listed in the Spring. More homes sell in the Spring, but where will prices be?

If you own stocks, you know that in the last 90 days we have experienced a “correction”. According to Case Shiller, we have also experienced a “correction” in home prices in the greater Seattle area in the last 90 days.

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